Banking circles predict, the average interest rates on consumer loans (including mortgages on it) in the fourth quarter of 2016 fell 10 basis points. The decline is due to lower funding interest. Indonesia Property magazine December 2016 issue of lowering the review of the performance of mortgage financing, especially quartal 4, 2016.
Mentioned MPI, banking circles predict that the average cost of funds expended banks of 6.45 percent, down 10 basis points compared to the quarter previous. the new October 2016 fell 60 basis points, while easing the BI benchmark rate has reached 150 basis points since the beginning of the year. While deposit rates approach the effectiveness of transmission with decreased 108 basis points.
“So the cost of funds (cost of funds) was down just lending rates did not fall as banks increase reserves,” he said.
Some of the banks until the third quarter of 2016 it should receive credit quality deterioration due to start meninges tificate NPL.Akibat ratio is still the potential increase in NPLs in the rest of the year, some banks also increased the provision charge (coverage ratio) to mitigate the negative impact of NPL.
However, if the downward trend in interest rates continues, BI is optimistic there will be an increase in lending in the last quarter of this year. Lower interest rates amid unpredictable economic conditions improve, as well as liquidity rose to be the reason of this growth. Even so, the increase is likely will not have much to boost lending in 2016 as a whole.
BI projection was based on the results of the banking survey. SBT where demand for new loans fourth quarter of 2016 is projected to reach 98.7 percent, shot 62.6 percent from the previous quarter. That is, banks see the opportunity ahead of the enlarged loan portfolio by year-end.
The banks said that the increasing loan portfolio mainly supported by the lending policies more longgar.Kebijakan is the provision of credit interest rates are lower and decrease the cost of provision.
Meanwhile, factors encourage banks loosen credit policy that is predictable economic conditions membaik.Selain the liquidity conditions improved and the real sector requires financial support. This prediction proved to be in a meeting of the Board of Governors (RDG) BI on 19-20 October 2016 decided to lower the BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate (BI 7-day RR Rate) by 25 bps from 5.00% to 4.75%. Not only that, the interest rate Deposit Facility also fell by 25 bps to 4.00% and Lending Facility fell by 25 bps to 5.50%.
Bank Indonesia believes that the easing of monetary policy is in line with subdued levels macroeconomic stability. Particularly infl ation in 2016 is expected to approach the lower limit of the target range, the current account defi sit better-than-expected balance of payments surplus is larger, and the exchange rate relatively stable.
Juda Agung, Executive Director of BI said amid the weak global economy, monetary policy easing is believed to further strengthen efforts to boost domestic demand, including demand for credit, so that it can continue to encourage the economic growth momentum.
“Every monetary easing will certainly have an impact on banks’ interest rates, they will adjust. Our expectations with this easing, credit will grow in the months of November and December. Until the end of the year probably there will be a chance to go down again 15-20 bps, “he said during a press conference after RDG BI.
BI Governor Agus DW Martowardoyo mempekirakan pace of credit growth will still be sluggish until early 2017. “Bank Indonesia sees credit growth in 2017 will start to recover, but it seems that the recovery will start to look at the end of the second quarter of 2017,” said Agus , (MPI digital version can be accessed via: http://ift.tt/2ewFNxN) More practical and more economical.
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